Just two months ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
