Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
